The Coronavirus Doldrums

Given the span of possible contexts, I suppose doldrums is preferable to crisis, disaster, pandemic. Oh, wait. From our vantage point, it’s really only through the lens of media and the internet that we’re even aware of the now labeled pandemic, per a World Health Organization announcement several days ago. The only visible example we’ve seen so far was when I went to our big-box retailer (Sam’s) on Friday, and the lines were as long as I imagine they’ve ever been. Most of the store was still stocked up, but they were out of everything from toilet paper to water to flour, sugar, salt and other dry goods with long storage potential.

From what I’ve seen online, many other places have been hit much harder. I’ve seen multiple posts from all over the US of completely emptied out supermarket shelves. To my knowledge, our logistical chain has never had to deal with a crisis of this magnitude. Regional markets in hurricane-prone areas have to go through this every year or so, but this is on an international level. The domino effect hasn’t struck just yet, and I’m wondering how much of an impact this may have on our economy in the future. It does warrant questioning the viability of our supply chain, which is so dependent on international manufacturers and shipping. That’s not a xenophobic comment in the least, it’s a practical reality that if we get so much from a country like China, and they shut down the entire country for weeks or months, the reverberations of that will persist for months and years to come.

Several retailers have taken additional precautions to keep shelves stocked and disinfected - Walmart and other 24 hour chains have started closing for 8 hours overnight so they can replenish stocks and clean more thoroughly. We’ve tried to stock up on all the dry goods and durables possible, but it’s unavoidable that we will need to restock short term perishables like fresh fruits and vegetables. I suppose we could find alternatives to even those if we had to. Something to consider for the next several weeks.

Another casualty of this forced isolation has been my motivation. I’m not depressed, it’s just my thoughts are focused on the impact of the virus and the prolonged loss of income I’m expecting. So far, I haven’t heard of any work stoppage, but I can only imagine that’s forthcoming. Our numbers had already been down for several months and I’ve needed my scheduler to perform acrobatic maneuvers just to keep me gainfully employed. This will only become more challenging as an increasing number of VA employees and patients are affected. As they keep repeating in the media, things will only get worse before they get better.

I’ve dialed back our mortgage payment to just barely above the minimum, ($2500, minimum $2487) instead of the $8000 we had been paying. We’re going to need that extra money for the essentials and even with that belt-tightening, I think it’s possible we’ll be headed to deficit spending. If push comes to shove, I’ll eliminate most if not all of the discretionary spending, especially subscriptions. I’ve already taken some steps in that direction, but have held off until I can get a better idea of what’s happening at the VA. The government is sadly often slow to react, and that’s especially typical at the VA. They did take some infection control measures fairly early on compared to the utter disregard you see in many places, but it’s hard to say from this vantage point what effect the virus is going to have on overall operations.

Most of my discretionary subscriptions can be paid for in a matter of minutes at work, so, for this reason, I’ve left them current, but basic necessities are the priority and after that would be paying off the mortgage earlier. My running mantra for several years has just been “pay off the house”, because after that we should be able to live on my pension income if necessary. It appears we’re going to get a stress test earlier than planned, and while we’re still paying off the mortgage. I’m fairly confident (because I haven’t rigorously reviewed the budget) that we have several months of cushion from where we sit. My pension income will at least pay for the mortgage, utilities, and there should be enough left over to at least make a dent in the basics like food.

We may slowly start to deplete our revolving checking balance if work at the VA is completely cut off. If I can at least pull the odd shift, even one day a week should be enough to cover all the necessities with even some discretionary spending for needful things that aren’t necessarily as critical as food, medicine, etc. I’m hoping all of this will blow over before we get to a financial crisis point, but even then we have options. I consider this a last resort, but we have enough in our TSP (401K) that if we took a withdrawal, we should be able to pay off the mortgage even with the fairly large tax hit we would take. I’m hoping it doesn’t get to that, but paying off the mortgage should put us where we could get by on pension income alone. All of this is predicated on the idea that I might not be able to work at all, and that’s certainly not my plan.

These sorts of large scale epidemics and pandemics are part of our future, I think. The United States needs to take a hard look (how many times has this been stated?) at our dependency on foreign goods and energy. There’s little reason that we can’t supply all of our needs from within our own borders, and even if we would still be subject to temporary shutdowns for epidemics, the residual effects would be briefer than what I expect will be coming in the months ahead. Corporations prove time and time again that profit is the only goal, and moving so much manufacturing overseas was completely driven by financial concerns.

The need for a social support structure (don’t say socialist, it scares people) that includes healthcare, jobs, education, housing, and the basic necessities has never been more apparent than now. Still, the Republican majority in all three branches of government is still proving their loyalty to big money, even now blocking the passage of emergency funding to allow Americans to get tested and to cover their short term financial shortfalls due to work stoppages and quarantine. It’s ridiculous that with the wealth of this country that we aren’t already prepared to test and treat as many citizens as is necessary. It’s been repeated often that we don’t live in a Democracy, and it’s true that the framers created more of a representational Republic than a true Democracy. But, we’re not even at that level. The old white men in power are serving their own needs and the needs of their wealthy benefactors. The rest of us are mostly on our own, and this has been evident in stark relief these past few weeks.

Wednesday is my Friday

Here of late, that’s been the case as I’ve been working no more than two days in any given week, although not necessarily by choice. We’re into March and I’ve still not heard any updates on a waiver approval for fee basis, so it’s feeling more like it’s not coming. Given that my salary limit was higher than previously believed, I’m thinking we can still swing the house payoff by next Spring, so in the end, it won’t necessarily matter.

Today is apparently one of those days where I wake up about 3 hours earlier than planned and just can’t get back to sleep, so I give in and get up. There’s not much rhyme or reason to it, it happens randomly as far as I can tell. It’s usually preceded by a solid four-hour block of sleep or thereabouts, so it’s not like I didn’t sleep at all. I typically will lay there for another thirty or forty-five minutes before I decide to get up. I have the luxury of knowing I this is my last workday so today after work I can crash early or stay up late or whatever my body tells me it needs.

Part of my early wakefulness may be due to Super Tuesday results for the democratic primary and it’s starting to feel like 2016 all over again. Of all the candidates I can’t see any with the proven track record of Bernie Sanders, just as in the last election. Still, it’s feeling like we’re going to shoot ourselves in the foot (again) and present a candidate that will lose to Trump in the general. In a dramatic turnaround, Joe Biden, who had been coming in the third and fourth place in the early primaries and caucuses won South Carolina, and it appears he’s leapfrogged the entire field, turning this into a two-candidate race and gaining some considerable lead even on Bernie Sanders. Not all the results are in yet, but they called most states for him and so far I’ve only heard of a few for Bernie, although he did win California which is a big victory.

A big part of Biden’s momentum was built on winning SC and then having the entire DNC and corporate apparatus champion his cause, including getting two candidates to drop out and support him. The powers that be are doing everything they can to prevent a Sanders victory, and I just have lost all faith in the cognitive abilities of most Americans. People latch on to one criterion or two and ignore all the important issues that affect them directly. Biden is in the pockets of big business and has a track record of racism and misogyny in his past, whereas Sanders has been a champion of the common people his entire career. But with Biden, a lot of people still associate him with Obama and those singular details are enough to get his vote. That’s not a knock on Obama, I voted for him both times, but Biden isn’t Obama.

I’ve given significant donations to Bernie in both 2016 and this year as well, and I’m not giving up on him, but it’s starting to feel like the true powers that be in the world will do everything they can to stop a change to the status quo they have worked so hard to foster and protect. It’s a sad commentary and a reflection that we haven’t lived in a democracy or true representative republic in a long time. Might and money make right, and it appears they will consolidate their power even further in the years to come.

I made the mistake of mentioning it was election day to my patient yesterday, not thinking it was only significant for the democratic primaries. He immediately responded “something something TRUMP!!!!” and the look of fervor in his eyes was a little disturbing. I quickly changed the subject back to his exam, not intending to get into a political discussion, just trying to encourage people to participate in the process. He otherwise was a fairly rational and lucid person, although he did have that tendency I’ve seen in some Veterans of just going into a monologue about their issues and not responding to any direct questions unless you manually steer them the entire time. It’s absolutely his right (and one which he’s defended for all Americans) to vote as he sees fit, but I question how many Trump-supporting Veterans have truly considered all the issues as they affect them and their loved ones. He’s a proven draft dodger, misogynist, liar, thief, rapist, racist, and a malignant narcissist. The country and the world is burning down around us and things are only getting better for the ultra-rich, but the cult of personality is strong. Despite this, a significant portion of the electorate seems to base their entire vote on “these people over here disagree with me on this one issue, so let’s burn this fucker down and laugh at them in their misery”. I suppose it doesn’t matter that most of them will be sharing in the misery.

That’s about all the political discourse I want to include in my journal till the end of time, but it’s hard to completely disconnect from such significant issues. It’s a weird irony that our personal lives have generally gotten better every year, but this in large part despite the workings of the government. We’ve worked very hard for several decades to put ourselves in this particular situation, but I grieve for the future of our country and planet. The American people are letting things go to shit, and can’t be bothered to look up from their phones to notice the world is burning down around them.