The Coronavirus Doldrums

Given the span of possible contexts, I suppose doldrums is preferable to crisis, disaster, pandemic. Oh, wait. From our vantage point, it’s really only through the lens of media and the internet that we’re even aware of the now labeled pandemic, per a World Health Organization announcement several days ago. The only visible example we’ve seen so far was when I went to our big-box retailer (Sam’s) on Friday, and the lines were as long as I imagine they’ve ever been. Most of the store was still stocked up, but they were out of everything from toilet paper to water to flour, sugar, salt and other dry goods with long storage potential.

From what I’ve seen online, many other places have been hit much harder. I’ve seen multiple posts from all over the US of completely emptied out supermarket shelves. To my knowledge, our logistical chain has never had to deal with a crisis of this magnitude. Regional markets in hurricane-prone areas have to go through this every year or so, but this is on an international level. The domino effect hasn’t struck just yet, and I’m wondering how much of an impact this may have on our economy in the future. It does warrant questioning the viability of our supply chain, which is so dependent on international manufacturers and shipping. That’s not a xenophobic comment in the least, it’s a practical reality that if we get so much from a country like China, and they shut down the entire country for weeks or months, the reverberations of that will persist for months and years to come.

Several retailers have taken additional precautions to keep shelves stocked and disinfected - Walmart and other 24 hour chains have started closing for 8 hours overnight so they can replenish stocks and clean more thoroughly. We’ve tried to stock up on all the dry goods and durables possible, but it’s unavoidable that we will need to restock short term perishables like fresh fruits and vegetables. I suppose we could find alternatives to even those if we had to. Something to consider for the next several weeks.

Another casualty of this forced isolation has been my motivation. I’m not depressed, it’s just my thoughts are focused on the impact of the virus and the prolonged loss of income I’m expecting. So far, I haven’t heard of any work stoppage, but I can only imagine that’s forthcoming. Our numbers had already been down for several months and I’ve needed my scheduler to perform acrobatic maneuvers just to keep me gainfully employed. This will only become more challenging as an increasing number of VA employees and patients are affected. As they keep repeating in the media, things will only get worse before they get better.

I’ve dialed back our mortgage payment to just barely above the minimum, ($2500, minimum $2487) instead of the $8000 we had been paying. We’re going to need that extra money for the essentials and even with that belt-tightening, I think it’s possible we’ll be headed to deficit spending. If push comes to shove, I’ll eliminate most if not all of the discretionary spending, especially subscriptions. I’ve already taken some steps in that direction, but have held off until I can get a better idea of what’s happening at the VA. The government is sadly often slow to react, and that’s especially typical at the VA. They did take some infection control measures fairly early on compared to the utter disregard you see in many places, but it’s hard to say from this vantage point what effect the virus is going to have on overall operations.

Most of my discretionary subscriptions can be paid for in a matter of minutes at work, so, for this reason, I’ve left them current, but basic necessities are the priority and after that would be paying off the mortgage earlier. My running mantra for several years has just been “pay off the house”, because after that we should be able to live on my pension income if necessary. It appears we’re going to get a stress test earlier than planned, and while we’re still paying off the mortgage. I’m fairly confident (because I haven’t rigorously reviewed the budget) that we have several months of cushion from where we sit. My pension income will at least pay for the mortgage, utilities, and there should be enough left over to at least make a dent in the basics like food.

We may slowly start to deplete our revolving checking balance if work at the VA is completely cut off. If I can at least pull the odd shift, even one day a week should be enough to cover all the necessities with even some discretionary spending for needful things that aren’t necessarily as critical as food, medicine, etc. I’m hoping all of this will blow over before we get to a financial crisis point, but even then we have options. I consider this a last resort, but we have enough in our TSP (401K) that if we took a withdrawal, we should be able to pay off the mortgage even with the fairly large tax hit we would take. I’m hoping it doesn’t get to that, but paying off the mortgage should put us where we could get by on pension income alone. All of this is predicated on the idea that I might not be able to work at all, and that’s certainly not my plan.

These sorts of large scale epidemics and pandemics are part of our future, I think. The United States needs to take a hard look (how many times has this been stated?) at our dependency on foreign goods and energy. There’s little reason that we can’t supply all of our needs from within our own borders, and even if we would still be subject to temporary shutdowns for epidemics, the residual effects would be briefer than what I expect will be coming in the months ahead. Corporations prove time and time again that profit is the only goal, and moving so much manufacturing overseas was completely driven by financial concerns.

The need for a social support structure (don’t say socialist, it scares people) that includes healthcare, jobs, education, housing, and the basic necessities has never been more apparent than now. Still, the Republican majority in all three branches of government is still proving their loyalty to big money, even now blocking the passage of emergency funding to allow Americans to get tested and to cover their short term financial shortfalls due to work stoppages and quarantine. It’s ridiculous that with the wealth of this country that we aren’t already prepared to test and treat as many citizens as is necessary. It’s been repeated often that we don’t live in a Democracy, and it’s true that the framers created more of a representational Republic than a true Democracy. But, we’re not even at that level. The old white men in power are serving their own needs and the needs of their wealthy benefactors. The rest of us are mostly on our own, and this has been evident in stark relief these past few weeks.

Tuesday workday

I somehow managed to quickly shift to the daylight savings time change this past Sunday, because 3 o’clock feels like it should, which is still early but the normal wake up time for a workday. The gradual health effects of laying off alcohol are still being felt. Not quite the same as detox, but a gradual improvement in relative energy and sleep.

The coronavirus is still dominating the news as I expect it will continue to do so. Work is still a going thing and as long as they’re open for business I plan on going unless I personally was feeling sick. I imagine we still haven’t seen the full-blown epidemic version of it in the states just yet. I’m curious how accurate a picture we’ll really get because the Trump administration has already proven they will lie, obfuscate, and cloud the picture for political and economic advantage. It hasn’t helped and has only likely made the situation exponentially worse.

Everything from national to local to private organizations has shut down or restricted operations in wake of the virus, in an effort to contain the outbreak. We haven’t seen anything large scale here yet, but it’s only a matter of time. If they cut back at work and I’m unable to get patients, we’ll just dial back financially and hunker down until this thing passes. We’ve been on the accelerated house payoff schedule, but that can be delayed for a few months (or longer if needed) if my schedule falls off at work.

This situation is just another reason why paying off the house has been the best plan. We could essentially live at home and almost never need to leave the house for anything other than groceries and gas for the car. We could even have groceries delivered if need be, although I think the relative risk of exposure compared to our brief trips to the store is about the same. Even though Sams and Walmart stay busy, it’s not like they’re packed to the gills and if you get stuff delivered there are still multiple hands touching it regardless. Hopefully, none of this will be necessary but we’re already in a long term habit of only shopping weekly or less often and we can shift that even further if need be.

I took Sunday off from most DTD tasks, although I did eventually exercise. Yesterday was a bit more productive, completing everything except vocal drills. I’m leaning towards are more guitar and drum focused schedule where I may just steal time from bass, vocals and even keys for awhile. If I had to pick two instruments to be more adept at, it would be drums and guitar. This has changed because I would have always said keys and guitar in the past, but I think drums are the area that will benefit me most compositionally. I’m not giving up on keys, bass, and vocals, it’s just that I really want to get to a higher level on guitar and drums that can be utilized in my songwriting.

I don’t think I’ll ever be happy with my playing, but there are so many inspirational players out there who constantly remind me that there’s so much room for improvement. I was already noticing a small benefit from the fretboard memorization drills, something I had kind of noticed in the past but never really committed to memory. There are only a finite number of notes and positions on the fretboard, so it only makes sense to get them memorized where you can immediately identify the note you are playing. This is really remedial considering how much I’ve learned in the past, but I just want to reinforce those fundamentals and then take what I’ve learned much further this time. The perpetual student - in large part this is where I find happiness and fulfillment.

I finished Dracula yesterday. The Coppola film did end up being fairly true to the original although some things changed in the adaptation as they always do. Dracula’s fascination with Mina and her similarity to his former wife are never a part of the book. In fact, the character of Dracula is fairly flat, more of an opposing avatar or symbolic force of evil for the main cast. We typically only see the outcome of his actions and his actual scenes are fairly brief with only the smallest amount of dialogue. His biggest or at least longest scenes all occur in the interactions with Harker at Castle Dracula, at the beginning of the novel. Still, it’s very effective storytelling and like I had mentioned before, reminded me of the Lovecraftian approach to tangential storytelling. I plan to read the rest of the novellas and short stories in this Stoker collection, but I think I may move onto something else for now.

I’m nearly finished with the Flander’s Victorian House book, so I’ll have to peruse my shelves and see what’s next. Maybe another writing craft book. I’m thinking for fiction I might pick one of the Brontes or maybe I’ll finally try and tackle The Silmarillion.